Market Size Overview
Binary Options Market
- In 2024, the global binary-options broker market was estimated at approximately US$ 0.87 B.
- Some reports estimate it at around US 12.4 B by 2030 (approx. CAGR ≈ 8–9%).
Prediction Markets / Platform-Based Markets
Kalshi (regulated exchange)
- October 2025 monthly trading volume: ≈ US$ 4.4 B (record high).
- Weekly trading volumes have at times exceeded US$ 1 B, demonstrating sustained high activity.
- As of 2025, Kalshi’s valuation rose to ≈ US$ 11.0 B after latest funding round.
- Most trading activity stems from sports-related event contracts, which account for a large majority (~70–90%) of total volume.
Polymarket (leading crypto-native prediction market)
- Monthly trading volume has reached up to US$ 3.02 B in peak months.
- Note: recent academic analysis suggests ≈ 25% of reported volume may be wash trading (i.e., likely not reflecting genuine liquidity or value flows).
Pancake Prediction (DeFi-native example)
- Lifetime total volume: US$ 4.62 B
- Fee revenue to date: US$ 159.5 M
Investor Takeaways
- Traditional binary-options markets still present opportunities, but growth may be limited compared to next-generation platforms.
- Crypto-native / DeFi prediction markets are proving their scale, with large volumes and real revenue, positioning them as a viable and growing new asset class.
- That said, reported volume may overstate actual economic activity — distinguishing “real” liquidity/volume from artificial (wash-traded) volume is essential when evaluating platform health and market potential.